Elfsborg (2) vs Ljungskile (13)

After five successive league wins, Elfsborg lost 0-2 at high flying Orebro. That means they're five points behind Kalmar at the top of the league. Indeed Elfsborg have a game in hand, but no longer have the chance to go on top on their own.

Elfsborg used to be untouchable in defence, conceding a mere five goals in their first 18 league games. But that's history now. Two goals conceded at Orebro could be seen as a temporary setback but if including two cup games, they've conceded a total of eight goals in the last four games (not counting the midweek game against Saint Patrick). They can no longer trust an impeccable defence and having the worst scoring record of all sides among the top five that means trouble. They've enjoyed loads of wins by the only goal but more is required as things look right.

Despite being seemingly in need of an improved attack, it's unlikely coach Magnus Haglund will abandon his 4-5-1 line-up.

Being drawn against Irish Saint Patrick's in the UEFA Cup qualifying round, they expected a relatively easy progress to the first round proper. But Irish managed a 2-2 draw in Sweden and, this week, have the chance to send Elfsborg out of the cup.

Last year, Ljungskile caused a sensation as they made it to the top division. Surviving relegation was seen as close to impossible, realistically even among their own (few) faithfuls. But what they've achieved in the last few weeks has earned them respect. A 1-0 win at Helsingborgs was followed by last Sunday's important 2-0 win at home to GIF Sundsvall. Both sides are fighting for survival and right now Ljungskile are three points clear.

Coach David Wilson has found the right way to perform, something I've mentioned previously. A hard fought defensive tactic with “ugly, boring football” could see them advance further in the table.

In their last game, Daryl Smylie and Niklas Lofgren put Ljungskile 2-0 up after only ten minutes. For the remainder of the game, they defended themselves and did it successfully. Smylie is one of the reasons behind the sudden rise of this small town side. Signed during the summer, he has scored four goals in the last four games, one per game.

Normally, Elfsborg would be as much favourites as you can ever get. But with their recent defeat, their problems in the UEFA Cup and their leaking defence, they could no longer be considered reliable. And with Ljungskile causing one surprising result after another, their chances of getting a good score at Elfsborg must be considered decent. I still rate Elfsborg as by far the better side, but be prepared for a surprise.